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by Larry Angell - PCs will lose the war of the family room to video game consoles or entertainment servers, Merrill Lynch said in a research report released Monday. "It's premature to know which (if any) device will become the centerpiece of the digital family room of the future," the firm said. "Still, we doubt that PCs (even Media Center PCs) will win because they are too complex and unstable. It strikes us as more likely that either (1) the game console will move up market to become the leading device or (2) a new system we dub the entertainment server will be created." Merrill Lynch pointed out that Apple seems a likely candidate to build the winning entertainment server based on iPod, iTunes, iPhoto, iDVD, and AirPort Express. "A 200GB Apple server at a reasonable price and possibly with PVR technology could be Apple's next category killer," the firm said.

Merrill Lynch analysts see such an entertainment server handling songs, photos, and movies. The digital device would also be able to connect to the Internet--but it would not be used for Web surfing. The hypothetical Apple entertainment server would also ideally store a couple hundred DVD-quality videos, and would be separate from cable boxes, video game consoles, and other PVRs. "Apple's success with iTunes and iPhoto shows the company knows how to create audio and image management for the masses," the firm said. "The next logical step is to put an entertainment server into the family room."

Merrill Lynch said that stability is the top priority in building such entertainment devices. "The stability of family room products cannot be over emphasized; achieving flawless wireless integration is difficult," the firm said. "PC operating systems (Apple included) have too many unnecessary features and, in our opinion, are too unstable to be the foundation of a family room entertainment server." Merrill Lynch analysts think Apple should use Linux or a scaled down version of the Mac OS in its entertainment server. "By not trying to replace the PC or pull PC functions into the family room, it has a chance to be stable enough for entertainment use."

The research firm also said that if the PC loses out to the game console or entertainment server, there will be winners and losers. Dell, HP, Intel, and Microsoft (even if it's successful with the new Xbox) will all be considered losers because of their close ties with the PC industry. On the other hand, IBM, Sony, and Apple will be the big winners of the family room battle. IBM because of its chip business (the company supplies Microsoft, Sony and Apple), Sony because of its Playstation platform, and Apple because it has a chance to "take center stage in a potentially large market."